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I guess we’re not in Kansas anymore! The return of the age of financial repression
Seminar by Russell Napier
26th January 2021 – On-Line
In the first LQG seminar of 2021 Russell Napier reviews the financial environment and draws vital inferences about the use of historic data and forecasting. “Welcome” to the new year… and a “new” financial world.
From 1939 to 1979 the United Kingdom and most of the developed world’s financial system was subjected to a financial repression. Excessive debt-to-GDP ratios across the developed world mean that repression is very likely to return.
Financial asset prices, determined by market forces for over forty years, will now be increasingly determined by administrative fiat.
The data that tracks financial market and macro relationships post 1979 may now be irrelevant and dangerous for assessing the outlook for financial markets.
What is financial repression and how should our analysis adapt to it?
Professor and Strategist
Professor Russell Napier is author of The Solid Ground investment report for institutional investors and co-founder of the investment research portal ERIC- a business he now co-owns with D.C. Thomson. Russell has worked in the investment business for over 30 years and has been advising global institutional investors on asset allocation since 1995. Russell is author of the book Anatomy of The Bear: Lessons From Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms (‘a cult classic’ according to the FT) and he is founder and course director of The Practical History of Financial Markets course that is part of the Edinburgh Business School MBA.
Russell is Chairman of the Mid Wynd International Investment Trust. He is a member of the investment advisory committees of two fund management companies, Cerno Capital and Kennox Asset Management.
In 2014 Russell founded the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes a business and financial history library in Edinburgh that now has branches in India and Switzerland.
Russell has degrees in law from Queen’s University Belfast and Magdalene College Cambridge. He is a Fellow of The CFA Society of the UK and is an Honorary Professor at both Heriot-Watt University and The University of Stirling. When not engaged in the activities above Russell reads too much financial history, is a keen fly fisherman and grows his own organic vegetables . His second book which covers the events of the Asian financial crisis is due to be published in 2021.